PSU Sweeps Portland (Washington Would Have Won the Match that Wasn’t)

Penn State Sweeps Portland to Open Penn State Classic

Russ Rose wanted his team to play tougher this weekend, and not just because they were at home.  In an interview with Matt Buffano of the Daily Collegian published on Friday (for the complete article, Click Here), Rose had said:

Everybody plays a little better at home, but you don’t win championships at home.  You win championships by being good, mentally tough and being able to handle adversity.

Penn State certainly played tough in its 3-0 sweep of Portland last night (25-9, 25-13, 25-12).  As to whether they faced adversity?  Maybe with problems with the serve (in which case, they didn’t fare well).  Otherwise, probably not.  The “facing adversity” test undoubtedly will come on Wednesday in the B1G opener against #1-ranked Nebraska.

In the decidedly one-sided match, 6-1 Jr. OH Deja McClendon was tops on the team with 15 kills (.609 attack %), followed by 6-4 Jr. Opp Ariel Scott with 11 kills (.556 attack %).  5-11 So. S Micha Hancock struggled at the service line (no aces, five service errors), but totaled 37 assists and five blocks.  5-6 So. DS Lacey Fuller and 6-2 Fr. OH Megan Courtney led the team with 8 digs each.  6-6 Jr. MH Katie Slay  totaled five blocks and eight kills (.889 attack %).

Penn State had a .566 team attack % and held Portland to a 0.00 attack %.

Washington Would Have Won the Match that Wasn’t

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The interesting question for us, given that the University of Washington originally was scheduled to face Penn State in the Penn State Classic, but canceled after the Pac 12 moved-up Washington’s opening Pac 12 match (to this coming Tuesday) to accomodate the Pac 12 television network, is who would have won if the two teams had played.

The question is made more interesting (at least to us) because both teams played Portland — Washington on September 11th (a 3-0 win by the Huskies).

We put together a few tables (after the video, below) comparing the statistics of Portland versus Washington and Penn State, and showing Penn State’s and Washington’s stats versus the Pilots.

At first glance, Penn State’s appear to be more impressive.  Penn State won by an average margin of 13.7 points/set, compared to Washington’s average of 5.3 points/set.

Penn State and Washington vs. Portland

TeamSet 1Set 2Set 3
Portland vs.
Penn State252525
Portland vs.
Penn State

But those statistics are very misleading: Washington’s match was at Portland, whereas Portland played Penn State in Rec Hall.  According to our computerized analytic tool, the Binary Ordinal Forensic Algorithmic Weighting Analysis Computationthing (“BOFAWAC”), that Home vs. Away disparity requires that Washington’s margin be given an upward adjustment of 5.8 points/set — to 11.1 points/set, and that Penn State’s margin be given a downward adjustment of 4.8 points/set — to 8.9 points/set.

With that objective correction, it is clear that Washington would have beaten Penn State by an average of 2.2 points/set.

So there you have it.  But don’t take our word (or BOFAWAC’s) for it.  Check out the tables below and judge for yourself.  (Oh, and check out the video below on how statistics fool juries.)

Penn State vs. Washington vs. Portland - Attack Stats

Name SetsKillsAttack
Scott, Ariel311118.556
McClendon, Deja315123.609
Slay, Katie3809.889
Courtney, Megan2509.556
Grant, Nia3529.556
Hancock, Micha3214.250
Penn State348576.566
Wedan v. Huskies3171134.176
Usher v. Huskies37113.462
Femling v. Huskies3427.286
Harris v. Huskies34112.250
Portland v. Huskies3361985.200
Wedan v. PSU38929-.034
Usher v. PSU33112.167
Femling v. PSU3239-.111
Harris v. PSU3126-.167
Portland v. PSU31818800.00
Parker, Gabi311322.364
Munoz, Kylin39113.615
Vansant, Krista38618.111
Nelson, Kaleigh37215.333
Sybeldon, Lianna34110.300

Penn State vs. Washington vs. Portland - Set/Serve Stats

Name SetsAssistsService
Hancock, Micha33705
Gonzalez, Dominique3221
Carpenter, Kristin1400
Penn State345411
Jordan v. Huskies31700
Dempsey v. Huskies31101
Portland v. Huskies33634
Jordan v. PSU3801
Dempsey v. PSU3601
Portland v. PSU31603
Nogueras, Jenni31910
Beals, Katy31500

Penn State vs. Washington vs. Portland - Receipt/Dig Stats

Name SetsReceive
Courtney, Megan208
Fuller, Lacey308
Hancock, Micha307
Gonzalez, Dominique303
Penn State3037
Wedan v. Huskies317
Rodriguez v. Huskies326
Mardesich v. Huskies315
Portland v. Huskies3929
Wedan v. PSU330
Rodriguez v. PSU307
Mardesich v. PSU306
Portland v. PSU3420
Orlandini, Jenna307
Nogueras, Jenni304
Sybeldon, Lianna303
Vansant, Krista313

Penn State vs. Washington vs. Portland - Blocking/Points Stats

Name SetsBlock
McClendon, Deja302016.0
Scott, Ariel300011.0
Slay, Katie305010.5
Grant, Nia30306.5
Courtney, Megan20105.5
Hancock, Micha30504.5
Penn State3016060
Wedan v. Huskies301019.5
Usher v. Huskies30017.0
Femling v. Huskies30105.5
Harris v. Huskies30004.0
Portland v. Huskies304141.0
Wedan v. PSU30008.0
Usher v. PSU30103.5
Femling v. PSU30102.5
Harris v. PSU30101.5
Portland v. PSU304120.0
Parker, Gabi302014.0
Munoz, Kylin303010.5
Vansant, Krista300010.0
Nelson, Kaleigh30509.5